Poll on record high joblessness "highly credible" - TUCP

MANILA, Philippines - Despite Malacañang’s disbelief, the Trade Union Congress of the Philippines (TUCP) said it found "highly credible" the results of a Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey indicating that joblessness among adult Filipinos may have hit a record high of 34.2 percent in the last three months.

"The country lost a total of $7.615 billion worth of exports from October 2008 to February 2009. At $1: P48, this is equal to P365.52 billion in sales that suddenly vanished," said TUCP secretary-general and former Senator Ernesto Herrera.

"The P365.52 billion is equal to slightly more than one-fourth of this year’s P1.414 trillion national budget. And we lost the sales not in 12 months, but in six months," Herrera pointed out.

"This alone should give us a fair sense as to the severity of the job losses in the export sector as well as other industries providing goods and services to exporters and their workers," added Herrera, former chairman of the Senate committee on labor, employment and human resources development.

Herrera said nobody really wants to talk the economy and jobs down. "Everybody would prefer to talks things up. But the reality is, the world is in a harsh economic downturn not seen since the Great Depression. And there is no escaping this reality," he said.

Still, Herrera said he has high hopes the economy, exporters and employment would be able to recover once the global recession ends. He said the first to mend would be exporters that "over-retrenched" their staff.

"Once foreign orders start trickling in and exporters realize they no longer have the workers required to meet demand, they will start rehiring quickly," he said.

In the meantime, Herrera said TUCP is helping the Department of Labor and Employment carry out "skills retooling and alternative livelihood support programs" for displaced workers as well as new labor force participants.

Last week, the National Statistics Office reported that Philippine exports, led by semiconductors and electronics, crashed by 30.9 percent in March to $2.9 billion compared to the $4.2 billion posted in the same month in 2008.

Prior to this, exports plunged by 39.1 percent in February to $2.504 billion from $4.112 billion a year ago; by 41 percent in January to $2.494 billion from $4.230 billion; by 40.4 percent in December to $2.672 billion from $4.481 billion; by 11.9 percent in November to $3.494 billion from $3.964 billion; and by 14.9 percent in October to $3.967 billion from $4.659 billion.

The First Quarter 2009 SWS survey, fielded over Feb. 20 to 23, found joblessness rising to 34.2 percent or about 14 million Filipino adults, from 27.9 percent or some 11 million in the prior quarter.

President Gloria Arroyo's Rating Falls To Record Low

An anti-Arroyo protester shouts during a rally in the southern Philippines. A latest survey by the independent Social Weather Station says President Gloria Arroyo's rating falls to record Low at -38. The Philippines under Arroyo's rule has been tagged as one of the most corrupt in the world.

Second Quarter 2008 Social Weather Survey: PGMA's net rating falls to record low at -38.
Social Weather Stations

The Social Weather Survey of June 27-30, 2008 found 22% satisfied and 60% dissatisfied with the performance of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, giving her a Net Satisfaction rating of -38 (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied), which is a new record-low for Presidents since 1986, surpassing the previous record of -33 in May 2005.

The new net rating is a 12-point drop from net -26 (27% satisfied, 54% dissatisfied) in the First Quarter 2008 Survey of March 28-31 [Chart 1, Table 1]. It is the fourth consecutive quarterly drop in her net rating since June 2007, when it was a neutral -3.

In all areas, majorities are dissatisfied

For the first time, gross dissatisfaction is at majority levels in all study areas: 63% in Metro Manila, 60% in the Balance of Luzon, 56% in the Visayas, and 62% in Mindanao.

The President's net satisfaction rating in the Visayas, where she customarily draws her strongest support, fell by 18 points from -15 in March (36% satisfied, 51% dissatisfied) to a record-low -33 in June (23% satisfied, 56% dissatisfied) [Table 2, also Chart 2, Table 3].

In Mindanao, it fell by 8 points in Mindanao, from -33 (26% satisfied, 59% dissatisfied) to -41 (21% satisfied, 62% dissatisfied), also a new record-low for the area.

Her net satisfaction ratings fell by 13 points in Balance Luzon, from -25 (26% satisfied, 51% dissatisfied) to -38 (22% satisfied, 60% dissatisfied), and by 3 points in Metro Manila, from -37 (23% satisfied, 60% dissatisfied) to -40 (23% satisfied, 63% dissatisfied). The existing record-lows in those areas are -47 (May 2005) in Balance Luzon and -48 (June 2006) in Metro Manila.

Between March 2008 and June 2008, President Arroyo's net rating fell by 11 points in both urban and rural areas: the former from -27 to -38, the latter from -26 to -37.

Ratings hit record-lows in all socio-economic classes

The June 2008 survey found dissatisfaction worsening in all socio-economic classes, with the middle-to-upper classes or ABCs just as dissatisfied now as the masa or class D.

The net satisfaction rating of Pres. Arroyo fell the most among the middle-to-upper classes or ABCs. It fell by 23 points, from -14 (34% satisfied, 48% dissatisfied) last March to -37 (22% satisfied, 59% dissatisfied) in June [Chart 3, Table 4]. The previous record-low for ABCs was -34 in May 2005. It had been positive in February, June and September 2007, when the ratings for the lower D and E classes were negative or zero.

Her net rating fell by 11 points among the class D or masa, from net -24 in March (28% satisfied, 52% dissatisfied) to net -35 in June (23% satisfied, 58% dissatisfied). The previous record-low for Class D was -34, also in May 2005.

The President's net rating fell by 8 points in Class E, from net -37 in March (23% satisfied, 60% dissatisfied) to -45 in June (20% satisfied, 65% dissatisfied). The previous record-low for Class E was -37 in March 2008.

Survey Background

The Second Quarter of 2008 Social Weather Survey was conducted over June 27-30, 2008 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for area percentages). The area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2008 to obtain the national estimates.

(The quarterly Social Weather Survey on public satisfaction with the President is a non-commissioned item, and is included on SWS's own initiative and released as a public service, with first printing rights assigned to BusinessWorld.)

So What Else Is New? Filipinos Remain Poor, Hungry Under Arroyo

MANILA (Mindanao Examiner / 21 Dec) - The Arroyo government said the Philippine economy is improving, jobs are many and poor families lesser since she became President in 2001.

Her political allies also say the same; they sing in unison and applause their own. But the latest reports of the independent Social Weather Survey speaks the truth.

Here is the Fourth Quarter 2006 Social Weather Survey: Hunger at new record-high 19.0% of families; 52% are Self-Rated Poor, 40% are Self-Rated Food-Poor!

The proportion of families experiencing involuntary hunger at least once in the past three months reached a new record-high of 19.0%, or an estimated 3.3 million households, according to the final 2006 Social Weather Survey, last November 24-29.

The previous record-high incidence of household hunger was 16.9%, reached in both March 2006 and September 2006. Hunger has now been at double-digits for the past eleven consecutive quarters, since June 2004.

The new SWS survey also found 52% families reporting themselves as Poor in general, and 40% reporting themselves as Poor in terms of Food.

Hunger increased especially in Metro Manila and the Balance of Luzon
Hunger rose by almost five points in Metro Manila, from 12.8% in September to 17.7% in November. It rose by three points in the rest of Luzon, from 14.7% in September 2006 to 17.7% in November.

Hunger rose by only one point in Mindanao, from 21.3% to 22.3%. It declined slightly in the Visayas, from 19.7% to 19.0%.

Moderate Hunger at record high 15.1%

Moderate Hunger, defined as households experiencing it involuntarily “Only Once” or “A Few Times” in the last three months, rose from 12.3% in the previous quarter to a new record-high 15.1%, surpassing the previous record of 12.9% in August 2005.

Severe Hunger, defined as households involuntarily hungry “Often” or “Always” in the last three months, declined somewhat, from 4.6% in September to 3.9% in November.

Moderate Hunger rose by over 4 points in Metro Manila (from 8.2% to 12.7%) and in the rest of Luzon (from 10.3% to 14.7%). It rose by less than 2 points in the Visayas (from 13.7% to 15.3%), and remained steady at 17.3% in Mindanao.

Severe Hunger went up in Metro Manila (from 4.6% to 5.0%), and in Mindanao (from 4.0% to 5.0%). However, it declined in the balance of Luzon (from 4.3% to 3.0%), and in the Visayas (from 6.0% to 3.7%).

Self-Rated Poverty

Overall Self-Rated Poverty hardly changed at the national level, being 51% in September and 52% in November [Chart 3]. It hardly changed in Mindanao (from 53% to 54%), and in Luzon outside Metro Manila (from 45% to 48%).

Self-Rated Poverty declined by 11 points in the Visayas, from 66% to 55%. On the other hand, it rose by 8 points in Metro Manila, from 46% to 54%.

Median Self-Rated Poverty thresholds

The Median Self-Rated Poverty threshold, or the median monthly budget in peso-terms that poor households say they need to escape poverty, rose in Metro Manila, from P10,000 in September to P12,000 in November.

It remained steady in Visayas, at P6,000, and in Mindanao, at P5,000
The Median Self-Rated Poverty threshold went down in the balance of Luzon, from P6,000 to P5,000.

Self-Rated Food Poverty

Forty percent of Filipino households consider themselves as Poor based on the type of food their family eats. Twenty-seventy percent put themselves on the Borderline, and 32% consider themselves as Not Food-Poor.

Self-Rated Food Poverty declined in the Visayas, from 55% in September to 42% in November, and in Luzon outside Metro Manila, from 40% to 37% [Chart 7]. It barely changed in Mindanao (from 40% to 41%).

However, it rose by 7 points in Metro Manila, from 38% in September to 45% in November.

Self-Reported Poverty and Hunger are consistent

Long survey experience shows that household heads’ reports about poverty in general, poverty in terms of food, and hunger are internally consistent.

In the November 2006 survey, the proportion of households experiencing hunger in the past three months is 30% among the Self-Rated Food-Poor, compared to only 13% among the Not Food-Poor,and 10% among those on the Food-Borderline.

The said survey has hunger at 25% among the Self-Rated Poor, compared to only 13% among the Not Poor, and 12% among those on the Borderline.

As a concept, poverty allows for various degrees of deprivation. A rise in hunger while poverty is flat, over a period of time, implies a worsening of deprivation among families at the lower end of the poverty spectrum.

Survey Background

The SWS survey questions about household poverty and hunger are directed to the household head. They are standard non-commissioned items in the Social Weather Surveys. By using the phrase “nakaranas ng gutom at wala kayong makain” or “experienced hunger without anything to eat,” the hunger item specifically refers to involuntary suffering.

The Social Weather Surveys referred to in this release used face-to-face interviews of a national sample of 1,200 statistically representative household heads (300 each in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao), from 240 geographical spots selected from all regions. Error margins of ±3% for national percentages and ±6% for regional percentages should be applied.

The area estimates were weighted by the National Statistics Office’s medium-projections for 2006 to obtain the national estimates. (SWS)